Ken Henry on tax reform

If the tax structure from early last century prevailed today, we would have to raise $40 billion from excise and $230 billion from tariffs to meet today's revenue demand. At that rate the excise on a schooner of beer would be around 7 times what it is today. And I shudder to think how much a television set would cost.

That's Treasury head Ken Henry, speaking on lessons from past tax reform experience. Henry is chairing the review of Australia's tax system and he singles out road pricing to address congestion as a perfect candidate for reform:

When vehicles drive on a congested road they impose costs on other drivers. Each driver thinks of their own need to get to their destination, not considering how, by taking up space on the road, they impinge on the ability of other drivers to do so. There is no means for one driver to coordinate with others, to bargain about who should have priority, so that they can all be better off. This results in a predictable 'tragedy of the commons' which is estimated to waste around $9 billion a year in avoidable congestion costs, increasing to around $20 billion by 2020. Such costs will only increase with faster population and economic growth.

Worth a read.

Congestion tolls in Sydney

One interesting announcement in yesterday's NSW state mini-budget was the introduction of "congestion tolls" on the Sydney Harbour Bridge and Tunnel: the toll will vary depending on the time of day. Tolls will increase from $3 to $4 during peak travel times, stay the same during a shoulder period and drop to $2.50 at night.

Time of day tolls can be a sensible measure to reduce congestion: they encourage motorists to avoid driving at peak hour. The demand for road space varies throughout the day so a price that also varies to reflect that changing demand is likely to improve efficiency. Commuters accept variable time-of-day charges for rail in Sydney, so why not roads?

A few thoughts on the new tolls:

• The government should closely monitor traffic densities and speeds at different times of day now and after the toll comes in to see what impact the toll has.


• Time of day tolling should also be applied to other Sydney toll roads such as the M4 and M5 (the government has flagged this) - at least if the Sydney Harbour tolls are effective in reducing in congestion.


• The public is cynical about this change and sees it as a revenue grab (which it probably is). If the government genuinely sees this as a congestion measure and wants it to be embraced, they should consider making it revenue-neutral or, more simply, reducing the night toll by the same amount as the peak toll increases. Alternatively, the additional revenue could be clearly earmarked for additional peak hour public transport so that people have a decent alternative to just paying the toll and continuing to drive.


• Isn't there an issue because the toll is only collected from southbound traffic? So there's no new incentive to avoid the peak hour when you're travelling north...

What do you think of the tolls?

Responses to higher fuel prices

Observing how people are responding now to higher fuel prices gives us some idea about how people will respond to a price on carbon under an emissions trading scheme.

In the short term, we can expect pain on households and businesses as their usual ways of doing things become more expensive. In the slightly longer term, people adjust by finding different ways of doing things: driving less, taking more public transport. And in the longer term, people make bigger adjustments like buying more efficient cars or moving closer to work.

We're definitely seeing the short term pain and the immediate political pressure to do something to bring petrol prices down. And we're also beginning to see people adjust - an interesting example is truckies choosing to take the ferry across the Spencer Gulf in South Australia rather than driving around it:

South Australian ferry operator Sea SA says figures for the June quarter show a doubling in truck traffic compared with the same part of last year.

Justine Day from the company says the main attraction is saving money. "We're being told by people in the industry that this is because the price of fuel which is, as we all know, at record highs at the moment - it's actually making the ferry a more attractive option than driving all the way around the Spencer Gulf," she said.

This also shows an advantage of using prices to drive changes in behaviour to reduce emissions, compared to government-dictated solutions like banning incandescent light globes or subsidising solar panels on roofs: you get a whole lot of unexpected and locally appropriate methods of reducing emissions coming out of the woodwork.

It also shows though that the effects can be somewhat unpredictable - would you necessarily think that a South Australian ferry company would benefit from emissions trading?

Adjusting to higher energy prices will no doubt be painful and difficult, but probably not as painful and difficult as people think: because innovative businesses will come up with ways to ease the transition - earning profits for them and reducing the costs for others.

Taxing 'Alcopops'

News over the weekend that the federal government has raised the excise on pre-mixed drinks ('alcopops') from $39 to $67 per litre of pure alcohol caught my eye, given my interest in using economic instruments for public policy.

These drinks are sweet and taste less alcoholic than they are and have therefore been a drink of choice for young people, women in particular, and the move is designed to help arrest the increase in dangerous drinking among teens and young adults.

On first thoughts, this seems to me like a sensible move:

1. It closes a loophole where spirits were taxed at a substantially lower rate if they were mixed with soft drinks and put in a can or bottle. So just on a tax efficiency basis it seems justified.
2. This is quite a targeted tax increase in that it focuses on drinks that I understand are largely consumed by young people who - given their lower incomes - are more likely to respond to a price hike.

The alcohol industry has claimed that young drinkers will just switch to beer or spirits. Some will, but I think that switch will be limited by two factors:

1. Spirits are taxed at the higher rate too.
2. Spirits and beer are not complete substitutes for pre-mixed drinks. From my experience, pre-mixed drinks tastse like soft drinks and are extremely easy to drink quickly. Spirits and beer just aren't the same.

I'll try and find some figures to assess my initial thoughts. What do you think of the move?

Other views:

Harry Clarke

Tim Dunlop